Southwest Monsoon Onset Shifts to May: Kerala's Paradox of Declining Rainfall and Intensifying Downpours
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- •Summary Box: Kerala's southwest monsoon onset has predominantly advanced to May in recent decades, with a 57% occurrence in May and 43% in June from 1901 to 2025.
- •However, the state is experiencing a paradox of declining overall rainfall and intensifying isolated extreme downpours, increasing the risk of floods.
Summary Box: Kerala's southwest monsoon onset has predominantly advanced to May in recent decades, with a 57% occurrence in May and 43% in June from 1901 to 2025. However, the state is experiencing a paradox of declining overall rainfall and intensifying isolated extreme downpours, increasing the risk of floods.
What is the Southwest Monsoon?
The southwest monsoon is a seasonal wind pattern that brings rainfall to the Indian subcontinent. It is characterized by the movement of low-pressure systems from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal towards the Indian landmass. The monsoon onset is typically marked by the arrival of these low-pressure systems, which bring heavy rainfall and strong winds.
How Does the Southwest Monsoon Affect Kerala?
Kerala is one of the states most affected by the southwest monsoon. The state's geography, with its Western Ghats mountain range and coastal plains, makes it prone to heavy rainfall and flooding. The monsoon brings much-needed rainfall to the state, but it also poses a significant threat to the lives and livelihoods of its people.
The Numbers That Matter
According to a study published in the Journal of Agrometeorology, the southwest monsoon onset has predominantly advanced to May in recent decades. The study analyzed data from 1901 to 2025 and found that the onset occurred in May 57 times, while it occurred in June 43 times. The study also found that the total number of rainfall days is increasing, but the overall rainfall is declining at a rate of 26 cm per decade.
Key Provisions / Legal Framework
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has a mandate to provide accurate weather forecasts and warnings to the public. The IMD uses a range of tools and techniques to predict the onset of the southwest monsoon, including satellite imagery, radar, and weather stations.
- ▸The IMD uses a range of tools and techniques to predict the onset of the southwest monsoon, including satellite imagery, radar, and weather stations.
- ▸The IMD has a mandate to provide accurate weather forecasts and warnings to the public.
- ▸The IMD is responsible for issuing weather warnings and advisories to the public during the monsoon season.
The Numbers That Matter
According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon onset occurs on average around June 1, with a standard deviation of roughly six days. However, the onset has predominantly advanced to May, especially in recent decades.
- ▸The southwest monsoon onset occurs on average around June 1, with a standard deviation of roughly six days.
- ▸The onset has predominantly advanced to May, especially in recent decades.
- ▸The total number of rainfall days is increasing, but the overall rainfall is declining at a rate of 26 cm per decade.
Challenges on the Ground
The southwest monsoon poses a significant threat to the lives and livelihoods of people in Kerala. The state's geography makes it prone to heavy rainfall and flooding, which can cause widespread damage and displacement.
- ▸The southwest monsoon poses a significant threat to the lives and livelihoods of people in Kerala.
- ▸The state's geography makes it prone to heavy rainfall and flooding, which can cause widespread damage and displacement.
- ▸The IMD has a mandate to provide accurate weather forecasts and warnings to the public.
Significance and What Changes Now
The shift in the southwest monsoon onset has significant implications for Kerala and the rest of India. The state's economy and agriculture are heavily dependent on the monsoon, and any changes in the monsoon pattern can have far-reaching consequences.
- ▸The shift in the southwest monsoon onset has significant implications for Kerala and the rest of India.
- ▸The state's economy and agriculture are heavily dependent on the monsoon, and any changes in the monsoon pattern can have far-reaching consequences.
- ▸The IMD has a mandate to provide accurate weather forecasts and warnings to the public.
Did You Know? The southwest monsoon is not just a seasonal wind pattern, but also a critical component of the Indian economy and agriculture. The monsoon brings much-needed rainfall to the country, but it also poses a significant threat to the lives and livelihoods of people in states like Kerala.
CATEGORY: national TAGS: southwest monsoon, kerala, rainfall, flooding, indian meteorological department, climate change SOURCE: The Hindu
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