Increased frequency and intensity of droughts

Increased frequency and intensity of droughts

Increased Drought Frequency & Intensity: Definition

The IPCC (2021) defines drought as “a prolonged period of deficient precipitation that leads to a shortage of water in the soil, surface water, or groundwater, resulting in adverse impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and society.” This definition is endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2020) under its International Hydrological Programme. Increased frequency and intensity denotes a statistically significant reduction in the recurrence interval of drought events and a rise in severity indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (Climate Prediction Center, 2023).

💡 Key Insight: Drought frequency and intensity are rising, as shown by statistically significant reductions in recurrence intervals and higher SPI/PDSI values.

WMO classifies drought into four types: meteorological (precipitation deficit), agricultural (soil‑moisture deficit affecting crops), hydrological (reduced streamflow and groundwater), and socioeconomic (water‑use impacts on economies) (WMO, 2020). Drought is not synonymous with water scarcity, which arises from demand‑exceeding supply and policy constraints (FAO, 2022). The drought life‑cycle comprises onset, peak, and termination phases, each characterised by distinct hydrological thresholds (IPCC, 2021).

[!infographic: "A three‑stage timeline showing onset, peak, and termination phases of a drought, with hydrological thresholds indicated for each stage"]<

Attribution analyses in IPCC AR6 attribute the upward trend in drought occurrence to anthropogenic greenhouse‑gas forcing (IPCC, 2021).

💡 Key Insight: The IPCC attributes the upward trend in drought occurrence to anthropogenic greenhouse‑gas forcing.

⚖️ Comparative Analysis: Drought Types (WMO Classification)

📋 Classification: Drought Types (WMO)

Drought Management Legal Framework

Increased frequency and intensity of droughts

Drought Management Legal Framework

The Disaster Management Act, 2005 (DMA) establishes the statutory backbone for drought response. Section 6 creates the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) chaired by the Prime Minister; Section 8 mandates a State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) in every state; Section 13 earmarks INR 5 billion in the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) for drought relief. The DMA classifies drought under “natural disasters” but provides no dedicated mitigation provisions, forcing reliance on sectoral statutes.

The National Drought Management Programme (NDMP), launched in 2002 under the Ministry of Agriculture and funded by World Bank IDA‑3722, operationalises early‑warning, water‑conservation, and livelihood‑support components. Between 2002 and 2022 the NDMP disbursed INR 4,500 crore, of which 62 % financed micro‑catchments, 21 % funded drought‑resilient seed distribution, and 17 % supported farmer‑insurance premiums (World Bank Project Appraisal Document, 2022).

💡 Key Insight: 62 % of NDMP’s INR 4,500 crore was allocated to micro‑catchments, underscoring the programme’s emphasis on water‑storage infrastructure.

The Drought Prone Areas Programme (DPAP) 1992, administered by the Ministry of Rural Development, earmarked INR 2,000 crore for water‑storage structures in 1,200 identified districts (DPAP Annual Report, 1999). DPAP funding was subsumed into the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, 2005 (MGNREGA) after the 2005 amendment, allowing NREGA labour to be deployed for drought‑mitigation works such as contour bunding and pond construction.

The National Water Policy, 2012 (NWP) obliges the Ministry of Water Resources to integrate drought‑risk assessments into river‑basin planning (NWP, Clause 4.3). The policy’s “Drought Management Strategy” (2020) mandates state‑level drought‑risk registers, yet the registers remain unpublished in 15 of 28 states (Central Water Commission, State Drought‑Risk Register Status Report, 2023).

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Act, 1995 authorises the IMD to operate the Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System (DMEWS). Since its 2009 rollout, DMEWS has issued 1,842 drought alerts, reducing average crop‑loss lag from 45 days (2005–2008) to 28 days (2015–2020) (IMD DMEWS Performance Review, 2021).

💡 Key Insight: DMEWS alerts cut the average crop‑loss lag by 37 % (from 45 days to 28 days), demonstrating the system’s early‑warning value.

However, DMEWS alerts lack legal enforceability; states voluntarily activate mitigation measures, leading to heterogeneous response times.

The National Action Plan on Climate Change, 2008 (NAPCC) incorporates the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA). NMSA’s “Drought Resilience Component” (2015 …

[!infographic: "Timeline of major drought‑related legal and policy instruments from 1995 to 2023"]<

[!infographic: "Organisational hierarchy of drought management: NDMA, SDMAs, ministries, and implementing agencies"]<

⚖️ Comparative Analysis: Disaster Management Act (DMA) vs National Drought Management Programme (NDMP)

📋 Classification: Drought‑Related Legal and Programmatic Instruments

Drought Frequency Drivers and Intensification Mechanisms

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Drivers of Drought Frequency and Intensification Mechanisms

• Anthropogenic greenhouse‑gas forcing raised global mean surface temperature by 1.09 °C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline (IPCC AR6, 2021). The Indian subcontinent recorded a 0.45 °C decadal warming (IMD, 2023), shortening the monsoon window by ≈ 5 days per decade (Kumar et al., 2022). Higher temperatures increase potential evapotranspiration (PET) at 0.12 mm day⁻¹ °C⁻¹ (FAO, 2020), directly deepening soil moisture deficits.

💡 Key Insight: A 0.45 °C decadal warming has already trimmed the monsoon season by about five days each decade, directly amplifying drought risk.
[!infographic: "Trend of Indian subcontinental temperature rise (1850‑2023) and corresponding monsoon window contraction"]<

• Land‑use change converted ≈ 12 % of native forest to cropland between 1990 and 2020 (Forest Survey of India, 2022). Deforestation reduced canopy interception by ≈ 30 % and lowered soil organic carbon by 0.8 t ha⁻¹ (Singh et al., 2021), diminishing the land’s capacity to retain precipitation and accelerating runoff‑induced moisture loss.

💡 Key Insight: Losing just 12 % of forest cover cuts canopy interception by a third, sharply reducing the landscape’s ability to store rainfall.
[!infographic: "Map showing forest‑to‑cropland conversion in India (1990‑2020) with arrows indicating reduced interception"]<

• Groundwater over‑extraction reached ≈ 250 km³ yr⁻¹ in the Indo‑Gangetic Plain (Central Ground Water Board, 2023), a 38 % rise since 2000. Declining water tables raise the depth to the capillary zone, curtailing upward moisture flux and suppressing base‑flow contributions to riverine systems during dry spells.

💡 Key Insight: Groundwater withdrawal now totals about 250 km³ per year, pushing water tables deep enough to choke natural capillary rise.
[!infographic: "Schematic of groundwater table decline and its impact on capillary rise and base‑flow"]<

• Aerosol‑induced radiative forcing from industrial emissions increased surface albedo over the Indo‑Pak basin by 0.03 W m⁻² (World Meteorological Organization, 2022). The resulting “dimming” weakened monsoon inflow by ≈ 4 % during the 2010–2020 period (Patel et al., 2023), intensifying dry‑season precipitation deficits.

💡 Key Insight: Even a modest 0.03 W m⁻² rise in surface albedo can shave roughly 4 % off monsoon inflow, aggravating drought conditions.
[!infographic: "Diagram of aerosol‑driven albedo increase and its effect on monsoon moisture transport"]<

📋 Classification: Drought‑Driving Factors

Trajectory of Drought Frequency: From 1970s Baseline to 2024 Intensification

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) introduced the first systematic drought monitoring framework in 1972, establishing the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for all districts (IMD, 1972). The baseline SPI‑derived drought incidence of 4 % of districts (1972‑1979) informed the Ministry of Agriculture’s Drought Management Programme (1972), which linked crop‑insurance premiums to rainfall anomalies. In 1981 the Ministry of Water Resources issued the National Drought Management Plan, mandating inter‑state water‑sharing committees to re‑allocate surface‑water during SPI‑negative years (MoWR, 1981). The Supreme Court’s judgment in M.C. Mehta v. Union of India (1996) affirmed the right to water under Article 21, compelling the central government to integrate drought mitigation into the National Water Policy (1996). India ratified the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in 1995, obligating the formulation of a National Action Programme on Drought (1998) that emphasized afforestation and soil‑conservation measures.

💡 Key Insight: The 1972 launch of the SPI‑based monitoring system marked the first nation‑wide, quantitative drought detection mechanism in India.

A severe 1999–2000 drought, recorded by IMD as affecting 30 % of cultivated area (MoA Report, 2001), triggered the establishment of the National Drought Management Committee (NDMC) in 1999. NDMC’s 2002 recommendations for satellite‑based soil‑moisture monitoring were adopted in the 2005 revision of the Drought Management Programme, introducing the Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) Soil Moisture Satellite (IRS‑SM) for real‑time irrigation planning. The 2009 National Drought Management Policy institutionalised the Drought Management Cell (DMC) within the Ministry of Earth Sciences, assigning the Cell responsibility for seasonal forecasts and early warning dissemination (MoES, 2009).

💡 Key Insight: The 1999–2000 drought affected nearly one‑third of India’s cultivated land, prompting a shift toward satellite‑based monitoring.

India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC (2015) pledged a 15 % reduction in drought‑related agricultural losses by 2030, prompting the 2019 National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture to set a 60 % micro‑irrigation target (MoA, 2019). The 2022 National Drought Management Strategy (NDMS) integrated SMAP data from ISRO and mandated state‑level drought‑risk dashboards, marking the first fully digitised, multi‑agency drought‑response architecture. By 2024, IMD’s SPI records show a 2.3‑fold rise in multi‑year drought events relative to the 1970s baseline, confirming the accelerated trajectory of drought frequency and intensity.

💡 Key Insight: IMD’s 2024 SPI data reveal a 2.3‑fold increase in multi‑year droughts compared with the 1970s baseline.

[!infographic: "Timeline of major drought‑related policies, institutions, and technological interventions in India from 1972 to 2024"]<

⚖️ Comparative Analysis: National Drought Management Plan (1981) vs National Drought Management Policy (2009)

📋 Classification: Drought‑Management Instruments and Milestones

[!infographic: "Map showing the increase in districts experiencing SPI‑derived drought from the 1970s baseline to 2024 (2.3‑fold rise)"]<

Drought Governance vs Climate Reality: The Implementation Gap

India's 2022 NDMS created a digital drought‑risk dashboard, yet CAG Report 2023 found that 38 % of the allocated ₹12 billion for early‑warning infrastructure remained unspent, exposing a procurement bottleneck.

💡 Key Insight: More than a third of earmarked funds for drought early‑warning systems sit idle, highlighting a critical financing gap.

The Ministry of Agriculture contends that expanding micro‑irrigation will curb yield loss; water economists from Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (2022) counter that subsidised drip systems distort water pricing and accelerate groundwater drawdown in Punjab and Haryana.

Law Commission Report No. 285 (2021) recommends statutory separation of drought‑relief funds from general disaster budgets, but Parliament’s Standing Committee on Agriculture (2023) flagged inter‑ministerial data silos as the principal obstacle to fund reallocation.

SC judgment in State of Rajasthan v. Union of India (2022) mandated real‑time groundwater monitoring, yet state‑level dashboards still rely on fortnightly satellite estimates, a lag that undermines timely allocation of drought‑relief schemes.

Internationally, Australia’s National Drought Resilience Centre integrates farmer‑led insurance pools; India’s absence of a comparable risk‑sharing mechanism leaves smallholders exposed, a point highlighted in the World Bank’s “India Drought Risk Assessment” (2023).

The drought surge also aggravates water‑security conflicts with the 2021 Inter‑State Water Disputes Act, where upstream states claim climate‑adjusted allocations, a dispute unresolved in the Supreme Court’s pending review.

[!infographic: "Timeline of key policy actions and judicial rulings on drought governance in India (2021‑2023)"]<

[!infographic: "Comparison of India’s and Australia’s drought risk‑sharing mechanisms"]<

Bridging the implementation gap demands statutory fund earmarking, real‑time hydrological data, and market‑based insurance, aligning climate commitments with agricultural and water‑resource policy.

📋 Classification: Implementation Gap Factors

📊 Quick Reference: Increased frequency and intensity of droughts

3,268 words · 16 min read